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Drill Baby Drill! What about Point Thomson?

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With Governor Palin criss crossing the country to the chants of drill baby drill, the question has to be asked; doesn't drilling start at home?

For the last ten months, since December of 2007 when Superior Court Judge Sharon Gleason ruled on the state's attempt to cancel existing development leases at Point Thomson, the Palin administration has done everything but chant "Drill baby drill!"

In fact if anything they've been chanting "litigate, baby litigate!"

For the last thirty years, the plans for developing Point Thomson have been sidetracked for one reason or another. Since November of 2006, the State has been trying to revoke the leases for lack of development.

Although Exxon's lack of progress on Point Thomson has been frustrating, there is more to the story than looking at the 22 prior development plans.

To say the State has been losing out assumes there are other companies who have been waiting at the door willing to invest billions on developing Pt. Thomson. But more importantly it ignores the fact that those 22 development plans were approved by the State; and some were approved by prior Directors that didn't care to fondly for the oil & gas industry.

The truth is that there has been no rush to develop Pt. Thomson because of the economics.

Everything from field dynamics, lack of a viable gas pipeline project that would allow for the monetization of the huge natural gas reserves and the cost associated with developing the necessary infrastructure have kept this project from being ripe.

In December of 2007, Judge Sharon Gleason ruled that although the DNR had the right to terminate the Pt. Thomson leases, they couldn't terminate the leases without providing the producers an opportunity to provide a remedy.

In March, Exxon and its partners filed its proposed remedy with the court that promises to spend $1.3 billion and be producing gas condensates by 2014. That is just about the same time we should be getting close to starting construction of a gas pipeline according to some timelines.

In April, DNR Commissioner Tom Irwin rejected Exxon's plan of development (POD). In all of Irwin's 78 page rejection notice, he failed to cite any legal or technical reasons why Exxon's proposal should be rejected. 

"Despite the fact that the plan may present a technically reasonable first step for developing these lands from a conservation perspective, I cannot risk the continued delays in development of this valuable state resource" Irwin wrote on page 31.

So despite the fact that Irwin seems to agree the 23rd plan is a good plan that calls for real action, the substance didn't matter as he predetermined that he could not trust the producers.

Exxon appealed Irwin's decision...to Irwin and was turned down again this summer. The case now goes back to Judge Gleason for her ruling. Both sides have said if they lose, they'll appeal to the State Supreme Court.

The threat of drawn out litigation will result in another five to eight years in court with the delays greatly impacting the Alaska Natural gas pipeline as all major oil producers have testified that without the legal wrangling resolved over Point Thomson, there will be no gas pipeline. 

What's happening today?

Meanwhile Exxon is pushing ahead with developing the field, in direct contradiction to Irwin's rejection claim that he didn't trust they'd follow through on their promises.

Despite the fact that the price of steel increased 50% in July alone and inflation is currently running at 20% on the North Slope, Exxon has unloaded two barges of all the equipment they'll need until the end of the year.  They have contracted with Alaskan firms to build ice roads and do development work in the field and are currently employing 150 contract workers.

In addition, Exxon is currently engaged in data sharing with the Alaska Oil & Gas Commission, including all of their seismic data and the new information they've obtained from the field in the last two years.  

The biggest risk for Exxon's progress at Point Thomson and Alaskan firms contracting to do work is the uncertainty of permits. Curently Exxon needs twenty three different permits to build the ice road and begin drilling operations in the most challenging oil & gas field in the world. As of today, Exxon holds only five permits and are waiting to hear back on a dozen more.

On October 15, 2008 both Exxon and the State of Alaska are scheduled to report back to Judge Gleason on the status of  settlement talks.

If Governor Palin wants to be out selling the policy of drill baby drill to the rest of the country, she should embrace that philosophy at home.

She should immediately direct her Department of Natural Resources to accept Exxon's POD, settle the dispute, move forward on granting them the necessary permits and let them get to the business of developing Point Thomson...which was the entire reason for the threat of revoking their leases to begin with.

It's time to stop the litigation and commit to keeping Alaskans working at Point Thomson to support their effort to drill and develop this critical gas field needed to make the Alaska natural gas pipeline a reality.

(To see pictures of the work at Point Thomson click attachment)  

Suggested Reading:

http://www.andrewhalcro.com/a_must_read

  

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Pt Thompson, Exxon wants the easy money

The real issue is maximum recovery. Exxon can get in and get out cheap and quick by blowing down the retrograde condensate, losing substantial oil, gas and liquids reserves, but with much higher profitability, $$$ reaped per $ invested. This would be with less market risk such as serious price declines from a peak period, e.g produce 1979-1982 like hell (highest prices), dribble out 1982-1986 (good prices) and then forget 1986-1999 (thinner margins). Also Exxon is probably shy about operational risks, e.g. remember the Exxon Valdez oops. The State of Alaska presumably should want heavy investment up front to recover otherwise lost oil and liquids ($$) now before the gas line. The best compromise is some maximum recycle of gas *well before* the gas line starts *ASAP*, for as long as possible. Normal full recycle would be about 20 years to cycle the liquids out first. So every year that Exxon stalls on recycling, it becomes less compelling to recycle for a short period before some maximum crisis with highest prices when complex equipment is likely not readily available. This is why with rising prices ca 2001-2003 Exxon's stalling is picking Alaskans' pockets. The real issue is probably something like recovering 300-600 million barrels incremental oil, 300-600 million barrels incremental liquids and 2 trillion cubic feet of gas for an extra few billion $ capital spent 5-10 years sooner, 10-15 years before gas sales, if Exxon had been responsive in 2003 than say 2008 (Exxon is only drilling now, not constructing oil and liquids recovery with gas recycling of iC4 and lower.) Exxon appears to consistently overstate the challenges here. An overpressured reservoir at 10,000 psi was challenging in the 1970s, maybe the 1980s if hot, sour gas. It is the minimum-risk & capital-to-Exxon, easy money option vs maximum revenue to the State and its citizens that is the issue.


Just the facts

It's real simple, no drilling, no oil..... no oil, no money. You have two choices in an oil state, develop the resources or starve. In the very near future we are facing massive deficits and a failing economy because hydrocarbon development is being used by the politicians to enable their particular visions of grandeur. I hope all you ineffective, vacillating , myopic leaders realize you are spending us into fiscal oblivion. For all the folks who are lucky enough to have a job when the oil runs dry you better get used to a 20 or 30% State income tax, combined with a ten thousand dollar per year property tax.


Pt Thomson

Perhaps if Sarah can keep Exxon dangling she can get them to buy-in to her TransCanada plan in exchange for giving them the go-ahead, thereby making the objections of BP & ConocoPhillips moot? Oh yeah, now I get it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Anecdote

I am hearing that with the recent high oil prices the oil patch in Sasktachewan, Alberta, and Newfoundland are booming. Is there similar activity in Alaska right now? If not, why not?


NO it isn't reasons 1) taxes

NO it isn't reasons 1) taxes are too high on industry 2) access to lands is restricted 3) the dept of natural resources is hostile to industry


AK Activity is in the Courts, not the Oil Fields

In AK, our politicians, under the great leadership of our governor, much prefer litigation over drilling. That is why Pt Thomson will be tied up in the courts. Last fall they passed a new oil tax law that raised marginal tax rates to the highest in the world. Anybody with a rudimentary understanding of basic economics would realize that will discourage any efforts to increase or even stabilize oil production, but basic economic concepts are beyond the grasp of our politicians (governor and legislature, at least the majority of them). The third rung in the ladder is the gas line, which our politicians have also moved further away from reality, not closer. Somehow they think that they can pay an experienced, foreign pipeline company to do the paperwork for a gas line and then the real players, Exxon, BP & ConocoPhillips, the ones with the gas and the money, will somehow agree to something they have no control over. As another poster in this string noted, state budget deficits are just over the horizon. Another governor and legislature will have to deal with that while our queen, Sarah, basks in the national spotlight.


Drill Baby Drill!

It's more like "Lies Baby Lies!"


Pt Thompson

I'm sure it is just a coincidence that Exxon started scrambling to spend money at Pt. Thompson at the exact time when the state got serious about jerking the leases. *** despite the fact that Irwin seems to agree the 23rd plan is a good plan that calls for real action, the substance didn't matter as he predetermined that he could not trust the producers. *** Well, duhh....at some point, talking is not enough. 'We really mean it this time. Those other 22 plans, we weren't serious but this one is really it...' Stopping litigation over Pt. Thompson does nothing except remove what little leverage the state has against Exxon. As it stands, AGIA and TransCanada are on shaky ground........but if Pt. T actually went to court and those leases somehow ended up with the state, they could be re-bid with some very specific conditions. The oil companies will not let these leases go back to the state. There are billions in gas there and the oil companies cannot allow resource-bearing lands to be taken away; after all, there is a chance that Obama and the Democrats will take control in January and follow this same path, cancelling non-performing leases across the country. There is no point in the state caving now.

The problem is that is if litigation is continued to go on, according to consultants who testified during this summer's AGIA hearings, in ten years we'll be right back where we are today. This whole exercixe was to get Exxon and their partners to respond...they have...let them work.


Coincidence?

I also suppose it is no coincidence that the price of natural gas finally rose high enough this decade to support economic development of Pt Thomson? I think things were kind of on hold waiting for the impending pipeline during the Murkowski administration since the state was negotiating in earnest with the producers. Now that it is obvious we won't be getting a gas pipeline any time soon, I think Exxon has come up with a plan, with positive economics, for small scale liquids production while developing good reservoir data for future gas production. Don't forget that this is a highly complex field with very high reservoir pressures. I don't think there are any independent producers waiting in the wings to take on these leases due to the high costs and significant risks involved in bringing this field to commercial operation. A year ago an assistant state attorney general involved in the Pt Thomson litigation was quoted in the paper saying that we wouldn't be in litigation if Exxon would produce. Well, Exxon is ready to produce, but it appears the state prefers litigation. Where's Tony Knowles when we need him? Now there was a pragmatic governor.


EXXON

This is window dressing and butt covering by EXXON. 'Let them work..' and then what? We know there is gas at Pt. Thompson and we know there isn't enough oil. So what is EXXON trying to accomplish today? 1. Hang on to the Pt Thompson leases and make sure they don't go back to the State. 2. Get the gas to a point where it is ready to distribute and then use that leverage to get lower taxes from the State than the numbers that TransCanada agreed to. Until EXXON is ready to compromise with the State and/or TransCanada, there is absolutely no reason to back off. That is the only lever the State has. Big Oil has no watch, no calendar. They can and will wait - after all, they have been waiting on Pt Thompson for 35 years. Think about that - they have been sitting on all that gas since 'Tie a Yellow Ribbon' was number 1.


Discussions with Oil companies

Any news on the meeting Palin wanted to have with the Oil companies last week?


Conference Call with Oil Execs ....?

So whatever happened to last week's request for a conference call with Alaskan oil company execs?


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