Time To Go Tom!

BECOME A FAN OF FIRE TOM IRWIN ON FACEBOOK

fblogo

 

Feb 7: Transcanada. "We're not obliged to build the pipeline"

NEW! Subscribe to RSS Feed

It took almost two hours of Transcanada's testimony on Wednesday in the Senate Resources committee to get to the bombshell.

For the last month, questions have been raised about Transcanada's AGIA application. Was it laced with contingencies that conditioned their commitment to building Alaskans a natural gas pipeline?

Apparently not. According to Transcanada executive Tony Palmer, AGIA doesn't require them to build a pipeline.

"We're not obliged to build the pipeline, it is not what AGIA requires" Palmer stated when asked about construction decision timetables.

This apparently explains why the administration and Transcanada have brushed off concerns about the sole survivor of the AGIA process having conditioned their application to build the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline.

After all, one could argue there is no way their AGIA application can be construed to be conditional regarding construction of the pipeline if AGIA doesn't require them to construct the pipeline in the first place.

Does any of this make sense?

Especially considering the AGIA process was sold to Alaskans as the best way to build  the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline?

So if Transcanada is not required to build the pipeline under AGIA, why are we on the verge of granting them an exclusive license to build the pipeline, seeding them with $500 million and subjecting the State to significant penalties if this marriage turns sour?

And how does this square with the Palin administrations continued bashing of the gas line proposal put together by former Governor Murkowski because his plan didn't guarantee a pipeline?

According to Palmer's testimony, AGIA simply requires them to go up to FERC certification and no further. But that's certainly not what AGIA reads. As we have reported, AGIA requires that a project be sanctioned just fifteen months after FERC issues a certificate.

Earlier Palmer testified that concerns over Congressional financial backing, their request that the State negotiate fiscal terms and their $8.9 billion withdrawn partners liability were baseless.

Last week the Legislative Budget & Audit Committee released a legal opinion that said there were clear contingencies in Transcanada's AGIA application.

A Jan. 23 opinion prepared by Washington, D.C.-based law firm Saul Ewing argued that proposals in TransCanada's application for federal loan guarantees to cover construction cost overruns and a “bridge shipper” provision for the federal government to guarantee shipping commitments in an initial open season amount to conditions in its proposal, which is contrary to the state law and the terms of the solicitation for proposals.

Palmer's testimony today explains why when the administration was recently asked about the legislature's legal opinion, they brushed it off by saying the legal firm didn't understand AGIA.

Now we all do; AGIA doesn't require Transcanada to build the pipeline.

But this raises even more questions.

Last week the Senate Resources Committee heard from BG Group, a British gas company who testified that one of the reasons they didn't bid on AGIA was that it prohibited them to seek final permission from their Board of Directors before proceeding with construction.  

So how can Transcanada say it is not bound by that same AGIA provision?

The admission by Transcanada reinforces the comments made by Representative Mike Doogan during the AGIA debate last spring.

In an April 17, 2007 opinion column in the Anchorage Daily News, Rep. Doogan wrote: "I can't say this strongly enough: AGIA does not lead directly to a gas pipeline. Rather it is a process to get us closer to a pipeline, and to put pressure on the producers to commit the gas they control".

So now we have both legislators and the sole AGIA applicant admitting that after spending the last year grooming a process and spending tens of millions, AGIA does not lead directly to a pipeline.

This also reinforces why Conoco has said repeatedly that they don't need the $500 million State inducement. 

On the other hand, Transcanada needs the State's $500 million  because it's the only way they can justify even showing up to the AGIA dance.

"The development of the gas line, to move through the AGIA process and to move through the licensing process, is a journey," said state Revenue Commissioner Patrick Galvin. "We don't know what bumps we're going to come across. But we want to have a partner who's willing to work with us as we encounter those."   

According to the way Transcanada has structured their cost outlay in their AGIA application, the State of Alaska will pick up 85% of the cost for a journey to nowhere.

Again, does any of this make sense knowing the goal is to build a natural gas pipeline?

Other highlights from Transcanada's testimony

After saying for years that the pipeline could not be built without the support and agreement of the producers, Transcanada was asked whether the State needed to negotiate fiscal terms with the producers. Palmer answered: "I'm not really in a position to comment on your upstream fiscal terms for natural gas".

Transcanada said they anticipated a lot of competition under AGIA and they structured it accordingly. We submitted an application that "at least we judged to be complete", Palmer said.

 

 

 

 

 

 

    


Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.

Power

It's the Fish Trap of our time. Does our constitution really grant that the resources are for the benefit of ALL Alaskans? Yes. Or do we try and see the glass towers in Mid Town and say wow these guys need our help? No. Its not really about taxes. Even if the tax rate was 100% like almost every other place on earth the BIG oils can still make a lot of money. And how? Not by owing the resource but all of the servicing and down stream activities. It's not about 25% or 27.5% it about untold value of the field. Folks we have the $30 billion in our own savings account and could build the whole ball of wax. OK make a sweet deal with TransCanada as a joint partner 50:50 equity (they know how to build a line) and get the loan and run with it. O maybe up the tax to 100% and we can market the whole one trillion dollars of gas over the next 40 years. And the oils would still make money providing serve to our fields, marketing, refining.... The ads are going to backfire just like they did for the cruise ship industy. So turn it off guys. Read the wonder of our founding fathers 50 years ago. Remember the fish trap firms and send them packing.


Is this really Sara?

Come on now, this really must have been written by our Governor as it indicates such a complete lack of knowledge of all business and especially the oil business. A. Chester has got to be an alias. This had to be written by someone who has never worked in the private sector for even 5 seconds. Like maybe, let me think perhaps the daughter of a school teacher from Wasilla who has a paycheck just magically show up like clock work as long as there are taxes to extract from people who take risks building and working in private businesses. The State of Alaska helping to build the pipeline - holly molly - it could be as efficient as our school systems, the state capital, city hall in Anchorage, the Dairy and Farming businesses or any of the other disasters the taxpayers witness every day. There have been many cases of a state or federal government getting into the energy business and every one has been a complete failure. How about the biggest failure of all - AGIA.


Is this really Sarah

I have to agree that it sounds a lot like Sarah, but surely Sarah is not that bad. Well maybe. I really liked the "Send them packing" comment, I assume the reference is to the oil companies, you know, the ones who have put 40 billion in our checking account, from which each of us gets a check every year, pays for 80 percent of the government, and provides jobs for thousands of people. We are the richest state in the union and we have no income tax, all from the oil companies. Run the dirty dogs out of town.


TransCanada Presentation

After listening to the presentation, it seems TransCanada is a good company and know their business. They knew the producers would have to commit the gas for AGIA to be successful, and said as much in their application. Their entire strategy of AGIA is to force the shippers to finance the cost of the line through ship or pay contracts, without knowing what the tax rate will be and having no control over the cost of construction. A question was asked during a hearing last year; “what will you do if the producers do not sign up during the open season?” I believe it was Galvin, responded “we could take the leases back.” In practical terms, that is impossible. Alaska has had good relations with oil companies for the last 40 years and the Palin administration has ruined it in one year. That and the stupidity of Bill Allen have resulted in anti-oil company feelings running amok. Sarah could have been a statesman and smoothed things over, but elected to fan the flames instead.


No Pipeline? No Problem

Welcome to crazy land, where a law that doesn't build a pipeline is sold as a law that builds a pipeline. On your left, you'll see a company with no gas, no rights to the gas, and no money to build a pipeline being awarded the sole rights to the project. On your left, one of the leaseholders of the gas sitting by and being kept out of the game. Our busdrivers faces can't be seen, as they have shoved their collective heads in the sand to avoid addressig the facts. How can they drive and not see the road you ask? The bus is honest and open, with full transparency for all!!! What's thay you say? We're going off a cliff? No No. We're dealing with some bumps in the road. All is well, remain calm, and have another mojito. Yes, it's before noon, but my hands won't stop shaking.


AGIA and the $500 million

Remember the phrase 'follow the money'? Do we know who the beneficiaries are in the Trans Canada company? Since Deputy Marty worked with them in the past, does she still have a vested interest? Who will be benefiting from the $500 million paid by the state? I'm sure we'll find out later - after there is no gas line and certain staff no longer work for the State.


Please explain

I readily admit that this, at times, is over my head. However, I have a simple question.... How do we reverse ACES as well as AGIA? It can't possilby be too late. If the majority of the people are against these processes what can we do that will make an impact on our governor and legislative body?


State of the State

You ask an excellent and important question. The main obstacle with reversing AGIA and ACES is that the current majority of the public think Gov. Palin is right. This - in my humble opinion - is not the case. I believe once AGIA fails - and it will - Alaskan's will start to see that the "emperor isn't wearing any clothes" and the pretty face with the inept administration supporters will have to do the only thing they can for the best interest of the state - negotiate with the legal leaseholders.


Paper Boy to Head Gas Line Team ?

The State of Alaska is not moving towards a Gas Pipeline. It is looking unlikely as the window of opportunity shrinks for reasons this administration does not appear to understand. Our future revenue source slips away as the Governor supports massive spending increases. As panic sets in the Palin administration we are going to see shifting of bodies and an olympic run at the blame game. Since we have her Realtor heading up a Dairy Board and her Baby Sitter as the Deputy Administrative Assistant to the Administrator of Administration (as well as supposedly writing attack pieces for the Fronttiersman) don't be surprised if we see the Palin Paper Boy appointed to head up the Gas Line Team or perhaps the stylist from the Wassila Cut and Curl taking over the Department of Corrections. Nothing should surprise us, scare us yes, surpise us no. ADN and KTUU will continue to fly cover even if she appoints her dental hygenist to head up the Board of Game.


I watched KTUU news last night...

Did I miss something, Andrew? I remember hearing Tony Palmer's comments but I don't recall the news mentioning anything about his above comment "We're not obliged to build the pipeline, it is not what AGIA requires". Why no mention of this? Just a minor detail left out?

Andrew's Response:

That is exactly why we have this blog. You can't hear everything in just a three minute news clip.

Transcanada's testimony link is below. The cooment and discussion we write about is near the very end of the hearing at the 1:40 mark.

http://www.ktoo.org/gavel/archive.cfm?audio=12494&request=DAD015F800CEB50F71724E706A8C9198


Pipe Dream

We are just pushing the timeframe of building the gas line further and further out wasting time with Transcanada. The producers are going to construct the pipeline, they are the only ones that can and will.


What the hell is this,

What the hell is this, charades? Our future is looking very grim.


for goodness sake

read the law. at some point you must actually read it, otherwise you're just barking at the moon.

Andrew's Response:

I've read the law...over and over again...along with Transcanada's application...over and over again....and every day it becomes more and more clear that this is a dead end.

$500 million....an exclusive agreement....and no comitment to build the pipeline....fabulous move.


if you've read it

but you still don't get it, i'm not sure you can be helped. the only dead end is the line of argument that you bring, ad hominem. read it again. there's an old saying that goes "i can explain it to you, but i can't understand if for you". seems fitting here.

Andrew's Response:

From AGIA 43.90.200

If the licensee is awarded a FERC certificate and has credit support (financing), they must sanction the project within one year from the date of receipt of the certificate.

If the licensee is awarded a FERC certificate and does not have  credit support, they have two years from the date of certificate award or five years from the date of the binding open season to sanction the project.

If the licensee violates this provision they must surrender the license back to the State with all of the work product completed during the project. (Engineering designs etc.)

So the law states that if Transcanada becomes the first company in FERC history to be given a certificate of convenience for a pipeline, when they have no gas and no financing, they have either two years from receipt of certificate or five years from open season to start construction or they lose the license.

If you consider the later date of the two, which the law allows, if Transcanada's open season is fall 2009 as they have testified, that means in the year 2014, we will be back at square one and $500 million poorer.

In addition, if the open season fails and the process highcenters what stops Transcanada from trying to save their license by leveraging the State by advocating they cut taxes or the project will never happen?

Nothing.

I think that pretty much speaks for itself.


the whole strategery

It's clear, just from what you've written above, that you do not understand what's going on or how things will unfold under this process. pasting the language into your response doesn't mean you get it, and buddy you still don't get it. $500 million poorer?! give me a break, we'll be incrementally closer to getting the pipeline, PLUS we'll own the golden ticket. READ IT AGAIN. Also, the LAW doesn't state "if transcanada becomes the first company in FERC history...", rather that's your editorial comment. the LAW actually says once the licensee gets the certificate (which the FERC has made clear it would willingly do) then the licensee must go forward toward sanction (spending money, turning dirt) or else forfeit all work product and transfer the certificate. Now, if you still don't understand that part, you should ask someone in the legislature what they meant when they voted on it (someone other than ralph). stop trying to kill AGIA andrew. you're smart enough to know you're misrepresenting the facts. the real question is why?

Andrew's response:

The owning the golden ticket analogy only works if it gets you into Willy Wonka's Chocolate factory. No pipeline...no where to go with your golden ticket. 

After all, who is going to build that chocolate factory...the state? 

Incrementally closer? Try six years out and no closer to a project. 

Although FERC said they'd be willing to consider the application from an applicant that has no gas and no financing, insiders say the likelyhood of them actually granting a certificate of convenience to a company that is not in the position to execute the certificate is between nill and nada.

And while the comment about FERC never having issued a certificate of convenience to a project with no gas or financing is my comment, it is a factual statement.

So at the end of the day we will have spent $500 million for engineering studies that won't do us any good as we'll have no one to execute the project.

This is a wild goose chase and puts the state at risk because this administration is embracing a gas pipeline strategy that ignores legal and fiscal realities.

Without the producers in the mix, this whole deal is dead on arrival.

 


Thanks Chuck - But.....

Chuck, Great to see you challenge Andrew on these issues but I have to honestly say you should provide some backup or details. I've read AGIA myself and the Transcanada proposal and it appears to me that AGIA is flawed and that Transcanada has contingencies. Please provide some basis for your disagreement and not just clever comments. I truly believe this Governor who I supported during the election has her ego too wrapped up in this issue and that she is going to fail us miserably while trying to blame others. Can you explain why the Governor is so openly hostile towards the producers ? thanks for participating.


Explanation

Don't just say read the law, explain to us exactly where Andrew is wrong.


Sorry Charlie...

An ad hominem argument, statement, or comment appeals to a person's emotions, not their logic. Perhaps you don't understand Halcro but his train of thought is highly logical. Sure, he throws in a few analogies and catch phrases along the way, but he never loses sight of his point. On the other hand all we get from the Palin administration IS ad hominem: evil big oil, we're winning, we're open and transparent, blah, blah, blah. Not an ounce of logic. This is business not a divorce hearing, let's leave out the emotion and sit down and negotiate.


Wake up Charlie

Charlie, Defending the ineptitude of the current governor for no good reason related to the pipeline or its eventual construction is wrong, and smacks of what you accuse Andrew of above. Bottom line - she has only one job and she works for us. All the other things that you read about like visiting Bush villages, shaking hands at the old folks home, etc. is only a distraction. She has one job - get us a gas pipeline. She also is under an incredibly short timeframe to get it done. If we fail to get this moving, it will soon be too late, and this State will start evaporating. Assume for a second that Andrew is correct, and five years from now we are no closer. Can you see how problematic that will be? We have nothing else to fill that huge pipeline of cash that keep our legislators spending like drunken sailors. We do not have the discipline to stop it and soon we'll have to start looking at the big pile of the Permanent Fund to fund our business. This governor has in her history very little to none real practical business experience - running a city with a $2 million dollar budget and now she's in charge of billions of our money and our kids futures? Give ME a break. But, I'm more than willing to give her a break - if she manages to deliver a pipeline project - a real project that really moves forward (not just lip service and a promise to do something later) - then this debate is worth it. I have no doubt that you, me and guys like Andrew want the same thing in the end, but her tactics are flawed - and the inabilty of the average Alaska to get it baffles me. If she does not get it done, and this should be the only barometer of her effectiveness that any of the citizens of Alaska should allow, she will prove to be the worst gamble of all time for the State of Alaska. I hope I'm wrong about this, but I don't see her pulling this off with her approach to date - it makes no sense. She looks good, but who the heck cares?


NEW! Subscribe to RSS Feed


copyright 2007 Andrew Halcro, All Rights Reserved.