Will we get the unobstructed view?

June 3, 2010: In just sixty short days, the open season for the AGIA pipeline plan will come to a close.

"It is a very significant milestone," said Alaska Revenue Commissioner Pat Galvin, one of the strong advocates for AGIA over the last three years.

Because the pipeline company isn't a public agency and open season is a commercial transaction which deals with proprietary financial information, Alaskans may not learn the results of the bidding period until the end of the year at the earliest. Even state officials sworn to secrecy will only learn general information about the bids, Galvin said.

Ahhh...general information.

Like if there was enough gas committed by the producers to build this pipeline that Galvin et al. have been promising for three years?

Lets cut to the chase; if there aren't firm shipping commitments that will fill a 4.5bcf pipeline by July 30, 2010, then AGIA has failed.

There is no wiggle room, and that's because AGIA promoters have talked and legislated themselves into a corner by peddling false hope and a faulty premise.

So either AGIA works like Palin, Parnell, Irwin, Rutherford, Galvin and others promised it would...or we've just wasted three years.

And lets be honest, even if gas is committed based on heavy contingencies, it's still a failure because with AGIA, Alaskans were told this was our way of not having to negotiate or give in to the producers demands.

"If you don't vote for AGIA, we'll be at the mercy of the producers," DNR Commissioner Tom Irwin said back in May of 2008.

Well...if the major producers refuse to put gas in the pipeline until their terms are met...seems like AGIA still has Alaskans at the mercy of the producers. In addition, we're paying $500 million to TransCanada who is taking away more than they add to the pipeline deal.

The producers main contengencies have been known for the last three years: Fiscal certainty, ownership of the pipeline and elimination of the problematic terms in AGIA.

So if Exxon, BP, Conoco all bid gas with the same conditions they've listed for years, the governor can't do a thing to answer any of their concerns because AGIA doesn't allow him to. All of the producers concerns require legislative action, which means lawmakers would have to ditch AGIA....which means it was a costly exercise that didn't work.

Come July 30, if Governor Parnell, who is an AGIA believer, refuses to release the general information to the public, both GOP gubernatorial candidates are going to make it an issue and the press will be suing.

Ralph Samuels, who was the only lawmakers to vote against AGIA, and Bill Walker, who is promoting a competing project will all make hay out of this three year wild goose chase. And one source told me the Anchorage Daily News has already been in touch with their attorney to discuss options if the stonewall goes up. 

All of this will bring pressure on an Administration to face the music they've been playing us for three long years.  

Lets hope Governor Parnell gives Alaskans the unobstructed view on July 30, 2010.