Public Opinion

Abraham Lincoln recognized it while giving a toast in 1856, “Our government rests in public opinion”. Less than a century later, W.C. Fields put his personal twist on Lincoln’s words when he toasted, “I never vote for anybody, I always vote against”.

Ahh, Public opinion, a politician’s worst best friend.

One day you’re up the next day you’re down. And nothing is a more personal measure of the public’s sentiment towards politicians than job approval ratings. A two-digit number that rises with emotion and falls with reality regardless of what continent you’re on.

In France during the Iraq war, President Jacques Chirac was riding an emotional tide. After a defiant stance against the U.S. and Britain, he was buffeted by public opinion polls that showed his approval rating was at 75%. It was the highest approval rating for any French president in the history of France’s Fifth Republic.

But lurking behind the wave of viva la France was the reality of a troubled economy. With the French unemployment rate a full point over the European average and projected economic growth rate near zero, things couldn’t get more challenging, but they did.

Over the last three weeks, Chirac’s government has come under intense criticism for miss-handling the recent heat wave that caused extensive fatalities. With summer temperatures hovering thirty degrees above normal, thousands of elderly perished in the French heat. His approval rating has dropped to 54%.

In Great Britain during the Iraq war, Prime Minister Tony Blair enjoyed a boost in public support that I witnessed first hand. Being an American overseas during the war brought about many memorable conversations. One was with a London cab driver that didn’t hesitate to share his support for Blair, “He’s our guy and I’m behind him”.

April opinion polls mirrored that sentiment as a Guardian/ICM poll showed 49 percent were satisfied with the job Blair was doing compared to 42 percent dissatisfied. And one thing about British public opinion was certain according to the London cabbie; “Brits have forgiven Americans for everything except Dick Van Dyke’s Cockney accent in Mary Poppins”.

Four months later the mood has changed towards Blair, as his government is taking criticism for its handling of pre-war intelligence. Even more worrisome are domestic concerns like improving education and a British health care system in need of attention. Meanwhile, Blair’s job approval rating has turned upside down with 37 percent satisfied and 54 percent dissatisfied.

In the United States, President George Bush has suffered the same fate. Towards the end of the Iraq war, several prominent polls including Newsweek, CBS and Zogby all put the President’s approval rating around 71 percent.

But domestic problems exist on the home front for our President as well. Take stubborn unemployment rates, a jobless economic recovery and record federal deficits, toss in concerns about the continued threat to American military in Iraq and it’s taking a toll on Bush’s approval ratings. The same three major polls now put the Presidents approval rating around 53 percent.

Local pollster Ivan Moore offered up a succinct explanation for these public opinion swings. “When you return to everyday life, the warts become visible again,” said Moore. History tends to support his theory.

In 1991 following a successful Operation Desert Storm, the first President George Bush enjoyed 90 percent approval ratings. But when Americans returned to their normal routine, domestic policy shortcomings quickly became the focus. Sixteen months later Bush senior found himself out of a job.

In California, Gov. Grey Davis has a dismal 22 percent approval rating, which has fueled recall efforts. In Alaska, Gov. Frank Murkowski’s approval rating in a recent poll was at 41 percent.

However, local political strategist Jim Lottsfeldt warns about putting too much emphasis on poll results. “Approval ratings tend to reflect what’s in the news today, many times voters core issues are much deeper than the poll questions”.

So how is true public sentiment measured?

The answer is as it always has been; the most accurate measure of the public’s opinion rests in the choices voters make on Election Day.