Ramras & BP Stock: Much ado about ignorance

July 1, 2009: The recent accusations of conflict of interest against Rep. Jay Ramras (R-Fairbanks) by a rabid Palin supporter and host of a pro Palin website deserves...ney, demands a closer look.

According to a blog posting on a pro-Palin website called Conservatives4Palin and subsequently picked up by both KTUU and the Daily News, Rebecca Mansour the website's chief mouthpiece from Los Angeles blogs, "though Ramras voted in favor of AGIA, he seems keen on praising the rival pipeline. Why would he be undermining AGIA? Is it an honest difference of opinion?"

The she goes on to answer her own questions by asserting that because Ramras bought BP stock, he will somehow profit from the failure of AGIA.

"Take a look at page 10 of Ramras’ financial disclosure" Mansour writes. "Ramras purchased 3,000 shares of BP on 8/18/08. They were reported to be worth $172,388.95", she adds.

Mansour's contention is that Jay Ramras wants AGIA to fail so his shares in BP will increase in value.   

Obviously Mansour is completely unschooled in how the whole natural gas pipeline project has to come together. If AGIA fails, it won't be due to Ramras purchasing 3000 shares of BP stock, it will be due to the fact that the terms of AGIA have ignored legal and fiscal realities since the first day Governor Palin rolled it out.

The bottom line is that AGIA and Denali are not in a race to see what pipeline gets built first. In fact, the pipeline cannot be built until BP, ConocoPhillips and Exxon ALL AGREE to build it and finance it together.

Even TransCanada's CEO has repeatedly stated that the pipeline will not be built without the "agreement and support of the North Slope producers."

And that agreement and support won't come until the State of Alaska puts AGIA aside and addresses the age old question of tax rates and fiscal certainty, which is something AGIA fails to do.

But lets play this out for Mansour and hopefully educate her while we indulge her accusation.

On July 22, 2008 Ramras votes against granting the AGIA license to TransCanada arguing that AGIA will not create an economically viable project for the producers.

A week later the State Senate approves the license and TransCanada becomes the state's favored son...even though they've admitted publicly that they can't build the line without BP, Conoco and Exxon agreeing to finance the $30 billion plus pipeline.

On August 18, 2008 Ramras buys 3,000 shares of BP thinking that if AGIA fails then his stock will rise because BP will then push ahead and build the pipeline. 

But in order for his stock to rise, BP has to build the pipeline and begin shipping gas.  

It's evident that Mansour doesn't realize that in order for BP's stock to increase due to action pertaining to the construction of a natural gas pipeline, it would first have to be built and be profitable.

That will require concessions from the Palin administration, which so far they have steadfastly refused.

Both at the Exxon/TransCanada joint partnership announcement three weeks ago and just last week at the legislature's oil & gas committee hearing, all of the major producers clearly stated they cannot move this project forward until the state addresses the critical fiscal certainty issue.

So given the fact that BP is not a solo actor in this process, and they need the participation of Conoco and Exxon as well as fiscal concessions from the Palin administration, the whole premise of Mansour's allegation is absurd. 

The only one who benefits from the failure of AGIA is Alaskans because then...and only then, can we get back to economic reality and sit down to negotiate with the companies who will build the largest and most expensive oil & gas project in the world.

And by the way...why in the hell is Mansour bitching about Ramras anyway?

According to Governor Palin's September 3, 2008 speech to the Republican National Convention she proclaimed, "I fought to bring about the largest private-sector infrastructure project in North American history. And when that deal was struck, we began a nearly forty billion dollar natural gas pipeline to help lead America to energy independence."

So Ms. Mansour, if as Governor Palin told the country almost a year ago that Alaska has "began a nearly forty billion dollar natural gas pipeline," why are you worried about Jay Ramras, his purchase of BP stock and the potential failure of AGIA?

Oh right.....Palin misled Americans just like you are.