That Sinking Feeling

March 1, 2010: This week we arrive at the annual ritual of spring break on the legislative calendar, when lawmakers will shove aside their pressing state business to attend the annual Energy Conference in Washington D.C.

The conference hosts policy makers from oil & gas states and provinces, while providing a forum to meet with federal regulators, congressional members and the ability to be briefed on the latest energy trends. 

The debate over this year's trip and it's true benefits to Alaskans has begun anew over the need to be spending time and money sending almost two dozen state lawmakers to the nation's capitol while many of the same lawmakers are complaining about not having enough time to do their traditional responsibilities.

However for me, this year's debate over taxpayer funded trips to the energy conference over shadows the real issue; a sinking feeling that Alaska's lawmakers have run up against the energy wall.

Over the last five years, the State of Alaska has spent $142 million on developing a natural gas pipeline. From consultants and conferences to reports , the state has been spending money like its going out of style in order to make something happen with Alaska's next economic dream.

Unfortunately, there seems to be a growing recognition that whatever they're doing, isn't working.

On Saturday afternoon, I attended my legislative town hall meeting hosted by lawmakers, State Senator Lesil McGuire, Representative Bob Buch and Representative Craig Johnson.

For the first time publicly, I heard both Rep. Johnson and Sen. McGuire tell a room full of their constituents that they both believed AGIA would fail. Johnson even added an additional dose of reality by saying that the "big line wouldn't be operating for another twenty years.

What makes these comments so powerful is that both Johnson and McGuire chair the Resource Committee in their respective bodies. These are the two lawmakers, who if anybody knows what the score is, they should.

But the hour plus lesson in oil & gas reality at Mears Jr. High on Saturday left me feeling a little uneasy because in the place of a clearly defined contingency plan, there seemed to be nothing offered to fill the energy void but pie in the sky wishes.

No direction, no focus just the belief that if they mentioned all of the energy projects that have ever been considered in the history of Alaska, it might ease concerned minds.

We're looking into Hydro, tidal and geothermal lawmakers said. We're going to look at the railroad bonding for an in-state gas line and don't forget about the idea to pre-buy the pipeline steel as an idea to help jump start the gas pipeline.

As presented by my lawmakers, Alaska's energy plan appears to be little more than a Rorschach test of inkblots representing far fetched projects instead of a viable long term energy plan.

With the growing realization that AGIA will not deliver Alaska a natural gas pipeline as promised by the Palin/Parnell gas line team, more lawmakers are breaking away on their own to support everything possible that might generate a precious kilowatt of power for their neighbors.

If that means Rep. Caig Johnson telling Alaskans we can have the Susitna Hydro dam along with a gas line to southcentral Alaska, so be it. Even though the laws of economics says you can't have both projects.

If that means Sen. Lesil McGuire telling Alaskans we can have value added products, when a key value added plant (Agrium) has shut down because of operating costs, so be it.

Even though we all know that Agrium isn't coming back. 

And if that means Rep. Bob Buch has to re-write his personal beliefs concerning oil & gas issues, so be it. Even though we all know his clearly established legislative record.

During Saturday's constituent meeting, a women asked if reducing oil & gas taxes would encourage companies to begin more capital investment. Rep. Bob Buch (D-Anchorage), who voted for both AGIA and higher oil & gas taxes over the last two years, started tap dancing instead of answering.

I don't think it's the legislature's responsibility to try and inject ourselves into decisions made inside oil company boardrooms, Buch responded.

A loud voice went off in my head; wait a minute, isn't this the same lawmaker who published an op/ed in the Anchorage Daily News on May 4, 2008 demanding oil & gas companies commit gas to an AGIA pipeline? 

"These companies have continuously refused to confirm whether they'll sell their North Slope gas to anyone who's approached them about building a gas line" Buch penned along with Rep. Les Gara (D-Anchorage).

"No one will build a $20 billion to $30 billion gas line without knowing whether these companies will put the state's largest known reserves of natural gas - from Prudhoe Bay - into that line," Buch wrote.

In fact, every vote Buch has taken on the gas pipeline has been the equivalent of trying to inject the legislature into board room decisions.

And now with the day of reckoning upon us, lawmakers like Buch who thought the heavy hand of the state would be able to influence the investment decisions made in the board room, are now trying to cover their tracks.

Sitting in the back row I raised my hand to ask Rep. Buch how his record reconciled with his rhetoric, but I decided against asking the question. After all, what was he going to say that I didn't already know...and what good would it have done?

As recently departed in-state gasline czar Harry Noah explained on his way out, Alaska is in the middle of a civil war when it comes to energy. Everyone supports everything but no one is making any decisions.

So after the last five years of spending $142 million on landing the great white whale and the last three of being promised AGIA would do the trick, lawmakers are now scrambling around trying to throw money at any idea that might generate a single ounce of energy, regardless of economics.

In failing to articulate a clear energy plan for Alaska, we're opening the doors to discussions that will distract us away from real solutions. 

Seizing upon the chaos that has become Alaska's energy plan, GOP candidate for governor Bill Walker has used the opportunity to again try and sell crazy to a state that already has plenty on its plate.

Walker's idea of shipping gas to Valdez to be exported to Asia is a non-starter. The United States Congress has already made their feelings very clear on exporting Alaska's natural gas to Asia; it's not going to happen.

In addition, for years we've all talked about the development of Alaska's natural gas as a security issue for the country. Reversing course and now agreeing to ship our energy security to Asia is not going to happen.    

The real focus this week shouldn't be that once again a large contingent of Alaska lawmakers is spending roughly $60,000 on a taxpayer funded junket to D.C. to hear about energy issues. 

No.

The real focus should be that after spending $142 million over the last five years on a natural gas pipeline and the growing realization among lawmakers that AGIA will fail, there is apparently no plan B. 

I'd argue it's more than just a sinking feeling.