What in the world: Afghanistan
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July 19 , 2009: It's hard to believe that after almost eight years in Aghanistan, the challenges still remain so daunting.
Welcome to a land where the world's most feared conquerors have been beaten back time and time again. British troops were sent home in the 19th century and the Soviet Union just twenty years ago.
Things in Afghanistan have not been going well. A flourishing opium trade, a growing and more violent Taliban presence in villages and a central government that is recognized as one of the most corrupt in the world.
Some blame the distraction of the war in Iraq as the reason why Afghanistan has slipped so dreadfully. Others simply point to history and re-assert the grim statistics about wars fought in the region.
Operation Khanjur (Thrust of the Sword)
The launch of Operation Khanjur on July 2, represents the largest military offensive in Afghanistan since Western forces invaded the country in 2001 and the largest Marine action since the taking of Fallujah from Iraqi insurgents five years ago.
Operation Khanjar calls for the deployment of 4,000 American marines and 650 Afghan soldiers, supported by more than 180 aircraft. The push into the Helmond Province is also the first big military offensive under President Obama, who promised during last years presidential campaign a more aggressive approach to the Afghan's growing Taliban woes.
The goal is to reduce counter-insurgency activity in Afghanistan over the course of the next year to 18 months. More immediately, the goal is to drive Taliban insurgents from their strongholds in southern districts of Helmand province.
Since 2006, Helmond Province has become one of the most treacherous parts of Afghanistan, producing more than half of the world’s opium poppies.
The military strategy appears to consist of throwing the Taliban off balance before the August 20 presidential elections and to attack Taliban supply line along the Pakistan boarder. The operation is also being co-ordinated with allies who are pushing into the central and northern areas of the province.
However the biggest challenge to overcome in Afghanistan appears to be one not solved by tanks, but by trust. Can Afghanistan create a government that Afghans trust?
Afghanistan's Government
Afghans are worried people. They feel anger over the death of civilians killed by foreign forces, frustration at the chaos and insecurity, and dismay at the corruption of President Hamid Karzai’s government.
But more importantly they feel fear.
In the Helmond areas that military forces are pushing into today, these villages have seen forces come and go. When British troops have left the area, Taliban fighters have come back and dished out retribution to villagers suspected of communicating with allied forces.
That's exactly why opinion polls consistently show most Afghans want Western troops to stay; they haven't forgotten the brutal oppression of Taliban rule.
The hardest goal to achieve will be giving the Afghans confidence that they will have the capacity to bring improvements like an honest and working government and most of all security.
Meanwhile, current Afghan President Hamid Karzai is headed to an August 20 election against 40 others and considered the favorite even though a May opinion poll showed only 31% favored his candidacy.
Critics claim his government is weak and corrupt. The economy is in the tank and the country is still dominated by an insurgency led by the same folks Karzai ran out of town eight years ago. Diplomats in Kabul say Karzai has shied away from making hard choices to end the endemic corruption and increasing violence sweeping his country.
Still, President Karzai is the favored to win.
If he wins a second term, Karzai has promised to open negotiations with the Taliban to end the war and focus on building roads, improving education, boosting the economy and shoring up agriculture.
But Karzai has a bigger problem before he gets to shoring up agriculture. He needs more Afghan troops who (like Iraqi troops) are going to be counted on to assume the security protection of the country.
Currently there are nowhere near enough Afghan soldiers as evidenced by the number of them (650) being used in Operation Khanjar, compared to the number of American marines (4,000). The Afghan military is spread thin and the country's dependence on donor states to pay for government means growing an army requires securing more funds from donor countries.
Karzai's latest trip to Washington D.C. pretty much answered any question of increased support when he was told very clearly that the United States was losing patience with his leadership.
Afghanistan currently ranks as the fifth most corrupt country in the world according to Transparency International, a global civil society organization dedicated to fighting against corruption.
For donor countries who have committed millions to helping re-build Afghanistan that have benefited few, it's an explanation for the slow pace of progress.
Louis Dupree, a Fulbright senior scholar and knower all things Afghan history, identifies four factors that seem consistent in the Afghan's history of breaking foreign powers: the occupation of Afghan territory by foreign troops, the placing of an unpopular leader on the throne, the harsh acts of ruling Afghans against their local enemies, and the reduction of the subsidies paid by regime change minded political agents.
The last point sounds eerily similar to what happened after the Soviet army fell in Afghanistan and investing in the region lost its favor with Congress. When aide was cut, previously supportive groups reverted back to being thugs while turning the country into what we're trying to piece back together today.
The next few months will be critical in Afghanistan. If both military and political steps towards securing stability in the country are sustainable, we might have a chance of changing history.
If military and political steps taken are unsustainable, chances are we could become just another guest in a country that has been called the graveyard of empires.
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