Palin for VP: The S.W.O.T Analysis

Yesterday was a historic day for Alaska in many ways. Not only did Governor Sarah Palin become the first Alaskan politician to ever be nominated to a presidential ticket, but she became the first woman ever nominated to the Republican Party ticket.

Over the next 66 days, Palin will be able to offer her fellow Americans a glimpse of Alaska from a real Alaskan. A daily diet of stump speeches talking about how Alaska does drilling right and the critical importance of us being able to develop our natural resources to help the country. She'll have the platform to share this story across the country with Americans directly, without the filtered lens of the national media.

We have a lot to be proud of as Alaskans.

The choice of Palin by John McCain is a risky one. While Palin brings a new fresh face in a race dominated by the talk of change and the hope for change, she also brings liabilities. As more than one pundit has phrased it; this will either be a brilliant move or a tragic one.

Over the last year on this blog I have been critical of Governor Palin's economic policies; two in particular. The oil tax increase that she proposed at $750 million while promising it would not impact the investment climate. But then when it came out of the legislature at over $1.5 billion, she signed it saying she thought it was close enough.

And of course her natural gas pipeline strategy that gives a Canadian company $500 million to do something they testified that they wouldn't do with their own money. All of this while ignoring the very companies like BP, Exxon and ConocoPhillips who will actually write the checks and assume the risk of the most expensive privately financed project in the history of the United States.

But while I've emerged as some reporters have consistently stated  as a "political rival" and "daily critic", for the first time yesterday two media outlets finally printed comments I've have always stated.

In this morning's Anchorage Daily News, Lisa Demer quoted me saying "You really have to have a high level of respect for Gov. Palin in the sense that she has the real ability to connect with people."

Yesterday on the KTVA news they quoted me as saying, "One thing I have learned campaigning against her in 2006, I have a high respect for her and secondly, I've learned you never underestimate her."

While I disagree with Palin on her economic policies, the governor is quite certainly due a tremendous amount of respect for her ability to make people feel she cares for them. In fact this is extremely rare for a Republican politician.

A few months ago, the dean of local pollsters Dave Dittman, explained to me about one of Sarah's qualities that had helped maintained her approval ratings.

When you look at political polls dating back to Eisenhower, Republicans have always won on issues like national defense, the economy and public safety. Democrats have always won on the issue of who is looking out for you. What Sarah has done is capture that traditional Democratic catagory.

In fact, according to one extensive poll done during the primary election, Palin's approval ratings have stayed elevated by continued support from Democratic women. While some attribute this to Palin refusing to push a conservative social agenda, others would argue it's because she appears to be looking out for their best interests. 

And while the news media still trumpets eighty percent approval ratings, a poll done on behalf of one of the ballot measure groups shows that her ratings have slipped into the mid sixties.

Regardless, Palin's poll numbers would be coveted by any politician. 

The bottom line is that while many feel she is likeable but yet unqualified to be Vice President (anybody with the same resume would be), the question has to be asked how can she help Alaska and strengthen McCain in November?

I offer you an objective SWOT analysis looking at Governor Sarah Palin's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

Yes I said objective.

Strengths

Palin is a fighter and is has an amazing way of filling a room with her presence. During the gubernatorial race in 2006, it was an amazing sight to behold at every debate. No matter what she said, if anything, people would just gush at her optimism and her compelling story.

While I and others criticized her glittering generalities during the campaign, the more she spoke them the more people fell in love. That is the significant power she has of making voters forget about the policy and focus on the person.

Palin should never, ever be underestimated. Far too many seasoned politicians have doubted her ability due to her appearance that she lacks any grasp or vision about public policy challenges.

I recall during a late night flight back from a Fairbanks campaign event in 2006, sitting next to former Governor and Democratic opponent Tony Knowles on the plane, talking about Palin's uncanny popularity.

I remember Knowles saying that what was most surprising to him regarding his polling was that Palin scored off the charts with well educated moderate and liberal women. This seemed counter intuative given Palin's inability to articulate public policies and her very conservative postion on issues such as abortion.

But this was the power of Palin. This was what some call the X factor and it's Palin's greatest strength.

She also brings to the stump a story that resonates with a number of Americans. The mother of a special needs child, a set of very conservative principles and unwavering optimism. All very appealing to a Republican base that has expressed doubts about John McCain's conservative credentials.

Weaknesses

Many of Palin's claims to fame that she has trumpeted over the last few years that we have already begun to hear parroted on the national media have been over blown and her lack of experience has already become target number one for Democrats.

These weaknesses will be exposed by Democrats, who, flush with cash this election cycle will have ample resources to do opposition research on Palin's real record.

A reformer? While Palin was out spoken against the likes of Randy Ruedrich, Greg Renkes and Frank Murkowksi, as were others, her role was more of a whistle blower than a reformer.

Ethics legislation that was passed in 2007 was two years overdue and supported by the same legislators who looked the other way during the events of the previous administration that pointed out th existing loopholes in the state's ethics laws. 

It took the FBI raids in August of 2006 and the indictment of former lawmaker Tom Anderson months later to force lawmakers to finally close the loopholes they had ignored for years.

Cleaning up the Republican Party? Even after her much publicized battle with GOP party chairman Randy Ruedrich over ethics, she remained silent at the 2004 Republican State Convention while Ruedrich was re-nominated unanimously.

This past spring at the 2008 Republican State Convention, Palin in her speech to delegates pushed for replacing Ruedrich but her calls were unanswered. Palin supporters who wanted Ruedrich out simply couldn't attract enough Ron Paul supporters who seemed more concerned with revoking the Patriot Act and legalizing Marijuana.

Another weakness is Palin's habit of tailoring facts to meet her political needs.

Yesterday in her Dayton acceptance speech, Palin stated,  "...I championed reform to end the abuses of earmark spending by Congress. In fact, I told Congress -- I told Congress, 'Thanks, but no thanks,' on that bridge to nowhere. If our state wanted a bridge, I said we'd build it ourselves."

This was not true.

Not only did the state keep the money that was earmarked for the bridge to be used on other transportation projects, but Palin had been a strong supporter of the bridge during her gubernatorial run in 2006, claiming Alaska needed to seize upon the seniority of its congressional delegation.

According to the Ketchikan Daily News on August 8, 2006, 'People across the nation struggle with the idea of building a bridge because they’ve been under these misperceptions about the bridge and the purpose,' said Palin, who described the link as the Ketchikan area’s potential for expansion and growth.

Palin said Alaska’s congressional delegation worked hard to obtain funding for the bridge as part of a package deal and that she 'would not stand in the way of the progress toward that bridge.'”

And again on September 29, 2006, she told the Ketchikan Daily News, "Part of my agenda is making sure that Southeast is heard. That your projects are important. That we go to bat for Southeast when we’re up against federal influences that aren’t in the best interest of Southeast.'

She cited the widespread negative attention focused on the Gravina Island crossing project. 'We need to come to the defense of Southeast Alaska when proposals are on the table like the bridge and not allow the spinmeisters to turn this project or any other into something that’s so negative,' Palin said.

Yesterday, it took bloggers less than a few hours after her acceptance speech in Dayton to call her on the claim that she turned back the federal earmark for the bridge to nowhere.

Palin will need to learn that reporters are hanging on her every word and that the level of scrutiny from the press will be relentless.

The lack of domestic and foreign policy knowledge will become problematic if Palin doesn't become a fast learner. During her twenty months in office as governor she has introduced no major policy issues dealing with health care, education or public safety.

With Americans worried about mortgage payments, health care and the cost of energy, Palin will need to offer them more than just glittering generalities.

As a close observer of her administration, Palin has had a habit of holding press conferences surrounded by the crutch of her staff.

When questions get too detailed, she anxiously looks around the room for someone to save her. This won't be possible when she is standing on her own.

And foreign policy will be one of her biggest challenges, especially standing toe to toe against Sen. Joe Biden who is considered by many as an expert on foreign affairs. With geo-political events just one match away from becoming a raging bonfire, Palin needs to be able to articulate an understanding of the global conflicts and possible solutions.   

Palin's lack of foreign policy is already becoming foder for late night comedians. Friday night Jay Leno poked at Palin's lack of foreign experience.

"Tonight on the show we have Olympic gymnast Shawn Johnson who just got back from Beijing. You know what that means don't you? It means she has more foreign policy experience than Sarah Palin," Leno joked.

But jokes aside, with McCain's age being a factor, the phrase being a heartbeat away from the presidency takes on new meaning. Palin will need to get up to speed on a tremendous amount of issues fast.

Opportunities

Palin's biggest opportunity is she can build on what she already has which is a tremendous campaign presence. She has the basic tools most politicians would kill for and a way of disarming opponents if she is prepared.

She will also have the opportunity to take advantage of expert help with debate and speech preparation which will strengthen her public appearances.

Even from a scripted speech, Palin has a knack for adding little side notes that add to the genuine nature of her message.

From a match up perspective, Palin has an opportunity to represent herself as one of the next generation of leaders. She also has the opportunity to create interest with younger voters nd draw that critical 18 to 24 year old demographic to the McCain/Palin campaign that Obama has done so well.  

Threats

The most obvious threat is that Sarah Palin is not qualified to be the President of the United States. With John McCain at age 72, he would be the oldest President ever elected. This means the Vice President slot will be watched extremely close.

There are a number of other threats as well that Palin faces if she doesn't realize the rules have changed and the stakes are high. The scrutiny she is under will be unlike anything she has ever been through before. 

During the gubernatorial campaign throughout Alaska, if a reporter showed up to cover an event, that was a coup. Today she won't be able to go to the grocery store without press following her and noting what she is buying.

Palin won't be able to say one thing one week and another thing another week. As soon as she does it will be a bit on The Daily Show with John Stewart.

Palin has had the comfort of being treated very respectfully by the Alaska media and some might argue with kid gloves. No more. She will have a pack of two dozen reporters following her every move and hanging on her every word. With the concern about her inexperience already coming into play, the press will be listening and waiting for any slip up to pounce on.

She has also exhibited a quick temper with those who question her. Time to grow a really, really thick skin. Every one of these reporters is looking for a better story than their colleague, which means nothing is off limits.

Finally, she needs to learn and learn fast. During the campaign in 2006 the biggest surprise was that Palin's message on issues never matured between January and November.

In April of 2006, Palin and I shared a cup of coffee together in the Captain Cook coffee shop. We had just been at a debate up at the University of Fairbanks the night before and she said although the was impressed with my ability to state policies and figures, when  looking out over the audience, she wondered to herself if having a grasp of that really mattered.

In October of 2006, at a health care debate at UAA late in the campaign, while Tony Knowles and I waited backstage to go on, Palin sat in the corner with two of her aides trying to force feed her health care information. She ended up walking on stage with an arm load of health care reports.

The fact was that having a grasp of policies and figures didn't matter, because at the end of the day, policies and figures didn't win the election; Palin won the election by being the populist candidate that people liked the most, not the candidate that knew the most.   

The threat is that she will try and apply that same recipe to running on a nationwide platform and I don't think that will help her and will be highlighted by the press and in the media.

But the biggest unknown threat remains the ongoing investigation regarding the firing of former Public safety Commissioner Walt Monegan. 

The fact that McCain selected Palin even though this investigation has just begun, shows that either Palin has convinced them that this is much to do about nothing, or the McCain camp feels they can spin the outcome if it's bad. 

According to Lisa Demer at the Anchorage Daily News, the McCain campaign says Palin “was never directly involved” and blamed the controversy on the campaign of the Democratic nominee, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama.

“The Governor did nothing wrong and has nothing to hide. It’s outrageous that the Obama campaign is trying to attack her over a family issue. As a reformer and a leader on ethics reform, she has been happy to help out in the investigation of this matter, because she was never directly involved,” the campaign said in a statement.

However, for the first time on Friday, Monegan offered confirmation that he felt he was fired by Palin due to his refusal to fire her ex brother in law, State Trooper Mike Wooten.

“It was a significant factor if not the factor,” Monegan said.

In addition, Monegan confirmed publicly what we reported on this blog yesterday about the existence of emails he received directly from Palin regarding Wooten.

This of course contradicts Palin's claim that she was never directly involved.

"Monegan also disclosed for the first time Friday that Palin sent him two or three e-mails that referenced her ex-brother-in-law and his status with troopers but he wouldn’t provide them because of the ongoing investigation," reported the ADN's Demer.

The investigation will take even more turns as there are reports now that the Palin administration has ceased cooperating with special investigator Branchflower and some Palin staffers are talking about jumping ship before it starts to sink.

This remains a constant threat and one that will not go away anytime soon.

They say a week is a lifetime in politics; what happens the next nine weeks will make Alaskan history for a lifetime.